On 16 October 2026 China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) and Ministry of Science and Technology published a draft revision of the catalogue of technologies prohibited or restricted from export. According to Global Times, it adds 40 technologies: 23 in AI, 12 in solar photovoltaics and 5 in biomedicine. Fourteen go on the prohibited list and 26 on the restricted list, which requires a licence. Public comment runs from 16 October to 15 November.
The strongest case for the catalogue
The national-security argument deserves a fair hearing. Every major technology power controls some exports. The United States has restricted advanced chips and chipmaking tools, and the AP report carried by PBS notes those curbs have kept China from the most advanced AI chips. A state that fears its sensitive datasets could be embedded in a foreign-deployed model, or that AI agents running inside government networks could be copied abroad, has a coherent reason to control them. Two of the bans fit that logic. One covers core technology of large models trained on national key sensitive data. The other covers AI agents serving key national information infrastructure, national defence and core government affairs.
The draft also contains some carve-outs. Global Times reports that technologies already in the public domain through open source or published papers are excluded. It also reports facilitation measures, such as automatic licensing for outbound biomedical licensing that does not transfer ownership. MOFCOM says the revision does not target any specific country.
What the draft actually does
The prohibited tier is narrow in its AI items but notable in solar. Perovskite solar cell technology is banned, while heterojunction (HJT) cell technology is restricted. The restricted AI items include design technologies for 2.5D and 3D AI chips and for 3D flash memory. Global Times also separates core large models, which are banned, from important large models, which are licence-controlled.
The catalogue is a long-running instrument, not a new one. Global Times says it was first published in 2001 and revised in 2008, 2020, 2023 and 2025. The 2023 revision, per Hogan Lovells, followed a December 2022 draft and added a ban on human cell cloning and gene editing. It also restricted LiDAR systems and drone technologies. The July 2025 update was smaller. It removed items on traditional building technology and added battery cathode material technology, according to CSET's translation. So the 2026 draft stands out for its scale: 40 additions at once, with AI the largest bloc.
Where the analysis turns critical
The first problem is precision. A control list is only as good as its definitions. "AI agents serving key national information infrastructure" and "large models trained with national key sensitive data" turn on terms the reports do not show as defined. An exporter cannot easily tell whether a customer-service agent sold to a utility counts. Under uncertainty, firms will tend to over-comply, which chills legitimate exports that no ministry intended to stop. If the final text uses numeric thresholds, firms at least know where the line is. Even a parameter-count test would be a blunt proxy, because parameter count is a poor guide to capability or risk.
The second problem is the legal footing. The Export Control Law, adopted on 17 October 2020 and in force since 1 December 2020, says controlled items include technical materials and other data related to the items (Article 2). Article 9 directs the authorities to revise the control list and publish changes promptly, and Article 13 sets out the factors for licensing decisions, including national security, end user, end use and destination. Those are real procedural anchors. But the reports on this draft do not say which statute underpins it. Hogan Lovells points to the Administrative Regulations on Technology Import and Export for the catalogue's three-tier structure. A published statement of which instrument applies, and which licensing factors a reviewer will weigh, would cost nothing and would reduce arbitrary outcomes.
The third problem is the cost to innovation, including China's own. Open research and cross-border collaboration are how AI and biotech advance. Banning the export of AI agent technology for sensitive settings is defensible. Licensing 3D flash and chip-packaging design know-how burdens joint ventures, foreign-invested R&D centres and Chinese firms selling abroad. Those are exactly the cases where a clear, fast licence is the difference between a deal and a lost contract.
A fragmentation spiral
AP quotes Natixis economist Gary Ng: "The world is getting more fragmented in trade and investment, but also in access to technologies." Omdia analyst Lian Jye Su reads the move partly as a response to Western sovereignty requirements on AI and other key technologies. That reading matters. If each large economy answers another's controls with its own, the result is a patchwork where compliance cost rises and smaller developers lose most. AP also notes that the draft arrives as China and the United States have made progress on AI safety dialogues and on a notification mechanism for AI incidents. Mutual, transparent controls on a few genuinely dangerous capabilities are compatible with that cooperation. Broad, loosely defined lists are not.
What to watch in the comment period
- Definitions: whether the final text defines "sensitive national data" and "key infrastructure" for AI agents.
- Licensing process: published timelines, criteria and a route for appeal.
- Open-source carve-out: how "already public" is judged for model weights and published papers.
- Scope creep: whether the line between "core" and "important" large models is defined and revised as models grow.
The 30-day comment window is short, but it is a real opening. Foreign and domestic firms, universities and industry associations that file concrete, technical comments can narrow the ambiguity before the list becomes binding. Proportionate controls are defined narrowly, applied predictably and reviewed against evidence. The draft has the first element for some items and is silent on the rest.